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Election Analysis from Hill & Knowlton

The President's strong popularity throughout the U.S. helped Republicans to regain control of the Senate and retain control of the House of Representatives. Republicans will now have full control of the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate and the White House for the next two years.

Although returns are still coming in, it is clear that for the first time since 1934, when Franklin D. Roosevelt was in office, the President’s party gained a majority of congressional seats in the off-year elections of his first term. This has only happened four times since Abraham Lincoln was President.

In this election, the President’s foreign policy clearly dominated the election season debate. The President and his senior aides will now focus on building a new economic team, progressing on homeland security and terrorism issues, as well as naming a new Securities and Exchange Commissioner to replace Harvey Pitt, who resigned last evening.

The House of Representatives

In the House, the Republicans have retained a majority and control. At this time, the Republicans have 226 seats while Democrats hold 204 seats with one independent that caucuses with the Democrats. There are four races that are still too close to call, have yet to be conceded, or are headed for a runoff: the Colorado 7th, Louisiana 5th, the New Mexico 1st and the Texas 23rd. While each of the remaining races is hinging upon a margin of one to two points, recounts are likely and there is a distinct possibility the races will be split evenly between Republicans and Democrats. Regardless of those outcomes, Republicans still will maintain a majority in the House.

There will be at least 51 new representatives in Washington in the 108th Congress. 391 incumbent members were up for reelection and 18 of those faced new districts created by reapportionment, which takes place every 10 years following the census.

Several key new members of the House at this time are: Max Burns (R-GA), Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL), Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD), Trent Franks (R-AZ), Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), David Scott (D-GA), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Denise Majette (D-GA) and Katherine Harris (R-FL).

The Senate

In the Senate, Republicans gained two seats while races in Louisiana and South Dakota are still undecided. Regardless of the undecided seats, the Republicans now control the Senate and currently have 51 senators.

In South Dakota, Democrat incumbent Tim Johnson and Representative John Thune are in a close race. The lead has gone back and forth and is close enough to trigger an automatic recount. That recount will likely take place on November 25. However, many news agencies have declared Johnson the winner.

The Louisiana election was technically an open primary and by state law requires a majority to win. Democrat incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu won over 46% percent of the vote but must now have a runoff election against Republican Suzanne Terrell who garnered 27% of the vote. It is expected that Senator Landrieu will easily win her runoff election to be held on December 7.

Republicans and Democrats went into the elections holding 49 seats each, with two seats held by independents including the interim Minnesota senator. With 21 seats won, majority control returned to the Republicans.

As of this morning, Senate Majority Leader-elect Trent Lott of Mississippi expressed a desire to minimize a lame duck session and only take up appropriations and homeland security issues along with a select number of judicial nominations. As with all things the day after an election, this is very much in flux, but is a good indication into the leader's personal agenda.

The new members of the Senate at this time are: Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), John Sununu (R-NH), Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), and Lindsay Graham (R-SC). Chambliss, Sununu, Alexander and Graham were all Members of the House prior to their successful Senate campaigns.

Congressional Committee Leadership

For the second time in less than 18 months, Senate committees face a change in who will wield the gavel as a result of the Republicans recapturing control in yesterday’s elections.

Following is a list of which senators are likely to chair some of the key standing committees in the new Congress – with a few senior senators having several options from which to choose. Please note that some senators are listed in two chairmanship positions due to the new senate composition. As Senators can only chair one committee, the Republican Party and its members will decide which senior senators will chair each committee. Additionally, due to Senate GOP rules limiting committee chairmen to three two-year terms, several prospective chairmen will have to vacate their posts at the end of the 108th Congress – two years from now. The following is a projected list of committee leadership.

• Agriculture: With Sen. Richard Lugar, (R-IN), who chaired this panel for much of the 1990s, likely to move over to chair the Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Thad Cochran, (R-MS), is in line to take over with Ranking Member Tom Harkin, (D-IA).

 

• Appropriations: Sen. Ted Stevens, (R-AK), who chaired this panel from early 1997 until the Democrats took control of the Senate in the middle of last year, is expected to reclaim his old post, moving Sen. Robert Byrd, (D-WV), to Ranking Member.

 

• Armed Services: Sen. John Warner, (R-VA), is this panel's once and future chairman. Carl Levin, (D-MI), will be the Ranking Member.

 

• Banking: Current Ranking Member Phil Gramm, (R-TX), is retiring, leaving the chairmanship to Sen. Richard Shelby, (R-AL), and moving Sen. Paul Sarbanes, (D-MD), to Ranking Member.

 

• Budget: Sen. Pete Domenici, (R-NM), has the option of spending another two years as chairman of this panel or claiming the chairmanship of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. If he takes over the Energy panel, current Senate Minority Whip Don Nickles, (R-OK), who must leave his present post due to term-limit rules, would likely take over as Budget chair. The Ranking Member will be Sen. Kent Conrad, (D-ND).

 

• Commerce: Sen. John McCain, (R-AZ), who chaired this panel for four years prior to the Democratic takeover in 2001, is poised to return, which will move the current chairman, Sen. Ernest Hollings, (D-SC), to Ranking Member.

 

• Energy and Natural Resources: Current Ranking Member Frank Murkowski, (R-AK), a former chairman, was elected governor of Alaska yesterday. Sen. Domenici is the next most senior member and if he takes the Budget panel, Sen. Nickles will end up with the Energy and Natural Resources chairmanship. Sen. Jeff Bingamen, (D-NM), will now become the Ranking Member.

 

• Environment and Public Works: Current Ranking Member Bob Smith, (R-NH), was defeated for renomination. Sen. Warner is next in seniority, but he wants the Armed Services gavel. That leaves Sen. James Inhofe, (R-OK), who is likely to give this panel a significantly more conservative tilt than it has had in recent years under either Democratic or Republican chairmen. The Ranking Member will be Jim Jeffords, (I-VT).

 

• Finance: Sen. Charles Grassley, (R-IA), who had a brief tenure chairing this panel in early 2001, will be back for a second stint moving Max Baucus, (D-MT), to Ranking Member.

 

• Foreign Relations: Sen. Richard Lugar, (R-IN), chaired this panel for a couple of years in the mid-1980s before Sen. Jesse Helms, (R-NC), invoked his seniority and grabbed the gavel. With Sen. Helms retiring, Sen. Lugar is poised to take the gavel back, which will make Joseph Biden, Jr., (D-DE), the Ranking Member.

 

• Governmental Affairs: With the retirement of Ranking Member Fred Thompson, (R-TN), Sen. Ted Stevens, (R-AK), is next in line, but is expected to take the Appropriations chairmanship. Next in line to chair Governmental Affairs, which exercised key jurisdiction over homeland security this year, is Sen. Susan Collins, (R-ME), who is a former Governmental Affairs Committee staffer. The Ranking Member will likely be Sen. Joseph Lieberman, (D-CT).

 

• Health, Education, Labor and Pensions: Sen. Judd Gregg, (R-NH), will likely return to the chairmanship position he held briefly in 2001. The current Chairman, Edward Kennedy, (D-MA), will likely become the Ranking Member.

 

• Judiciary: Sen. Orrin Hatch, (R-UT), will continue as chairman. The Ranking Member will likely be Sen. Patrick Leahy, (D-VT).

 

• Committee on Rules and Administration
Chairman Mitch McConnell, (R-KY)
Ranking Member Chris Dodd, (D-CT)

 

• Committee on Small Business
Chairman Chris Bond, (R-MO)
Ranking Member John Kerry, (D-MA)

 

• Committee on Veteran’s Affairs
Chairman Arlen Specter, (R-PA)
Ranking Member John Rockefeller, (D-WV)

 

• Committee on Indian Affairs
Chairman Ben Nighthorse Campbell, (R-CO)
Ranking Member Daniel Inouye, (D-HI)

 

• Select Committee on Ethics
Chairman Pat Roberts, (R-KS)
Vice Chairman Harry Reid, (D-NV)

 

• Select Committee on Intelligence
Chairman Richard Shelby, (R-AL)
Vice Chairman Bob Graham, (D-FL)

 

• Special Committee on Aging
Chairman Larry Craig, (R-ID)
Ranking Member John Breaux, (D-LA)

House of Representatives

Since the Republicans maintained control of the House of Representatives, most committee leadership assignments will remain the same:

• Agriculture
Chairman Larry Combest, (R-TX)
Ranking Member Charles Stenholm, (D-TX)

 

• Appropriations
Chairman Bill Young, (R-FL)
Ranking Member David Obey, (D-WI)

 

• Armed Services: Current Chairman Bob Stump, (R-AZ), is retiring. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) will likely become chair. Rep. Ike Skelton, (D-MO), will remain Ranking Member.

 

• Budget
Chairman Jim Nussle, (R-IA)
Ranking Member John Spratt, (D-SC)

 

• Education and Workforce
Chairman John Boehner, (R-OH)
Ranking Member George Miller, (D-CA)

 

• Energy and Commerce
Chairman Billy Tauzin, (R-LA)
Ranking Member John Dingell, (D-MI)

 

• Financial Services
Chairman Michael Oxley (R-OH)
Current Ranking Member John LaFalce, (D-NY), is retiring. Rep. Barney Frank, (D-MA), is the next most senior member and will likely become Ranking Member.

 

• Government Reform: Current Chairman Dan Burton, (R-IN), is retiring. Rep. Chris Shays, (R-CT), is the next most senior member, but chairmanship is still up in the air.
The Ranking Member will likely be Rep. Henry Waxman, (D-CA)

 

• House Administration
Chairman Bob Ney, (R-OH)
Ranking Member Steny Hoyer, (D-MD)

 

• International Relations
Chairman Henry Hyde, (R-IL)
Ranking Member Tom Lantos, (D-CA)

 

• Judiciary
Chairman Jim Sensenbrenner, (R-WI)
Ranking Member John Conyers, (D-MI)

 

• Resources
Chairman James Hansen, (R-UT)
Ranking Member Nick Rahall, (D-WV)

 

• Rules
Chairman David Dreier, (R-CA)
Ranking Member Joe Moakley, (D-MA)

 

• Science
Chairman Sherwood Boehlert, (R-NY)
Ranking Member Ralph Hall, (D-TX)

 

• Select Intelligence
Chairman Porter Goss, (R-FL)
Ranking Member Nancy Pelosi, (D-CA)

 

• Small Business
Chairman Donald Manzullo, (R-IL)
Ranking Member Nydia Velazquez, (D-NY)

 

• Standards of Official Conduct
Chairman Joel Hefley, (R-CO)
Ranking Member Howard Berman, (D-CA)

 

• Transportation and Infrastructure
Chairman Don Young, (R-AK)
Ranking Member Jim Oberstar, (D-MN)

 

• Veterans’ Affairs
Chairman Christopher Smith, (R-NJ)
Ranking Member Lane Evans, (D-IL)

 

• Ways and Means
Chairman Bill Thomas, (R-CA)
Ranking Member Charles Rangel, (D-NY)

Governors

The Democrats made strong gains by picking up three governor’s mansions in the Midwest: in Michigan, Illinois and Iowa. These three states will likely be key battleground states in the 2004 Presidential election. According to the most recent projections, Republicans will likely make strong gains in the South while Democrats are picking up states in the Midwest.

As of this morning, five races remain too close to call: Alabama, Arizona, Oklahoma, Oregon and Vermont. Media reports have projected that Democrats will likely win Alabama, Arizona and Oklahoma, but these elections have yet to be certified. Not counting these close races, the Democrats picked up three governors’ seats, bringing the national breakdown to 26 Republican governorships and 19 to the Democrats. Overall, Democrats have ten new governors in states they had not previously run, while Republicans now have six.

State Legislatures

Unofficial results in state legislative races showed Republicans taking over at least five legislative chambers previously held by Democrats or tied: the Texas House, Arizona Senate, Colorado Senate, Missouri House and Wisconsin Senate. Prior to the election, control of the nation's 7,382 legislatures was almost evenly split.